
Real Money India – Although the government was pushing for a cashless society, cash ruled India. But that will soon change. Photo: AFP
While the Covid-19 pandemic has enabled global cashless transactions in a socially distanced world, cash remains king in India.
Real Money India
The latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India showed a nearly 13% rise in currency transactions in the first nine months of the current fiscal year as people preferred to hold cash as a precautionary measure amid uncertainty due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
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As of January 1 this year, it crossed Rs 27.7 trillion ($378 billion) from Rs 24.47 trillion ($333 billion) as of March 31, 2020. or 22% since January 1, 2020
People preferred to have cash as a precautionary measure to deal with the economic uncertainty caused by Covid-19 and any unforeseen medical emergency.
The number of Covid-19 cases in India has crossed 10 million with more than 150,000 deaths, second in the world after the US. However, the number of active cases continues to decline and the government plans to start a vaccination program from January 16.
The central bank previously said in its 2019-2020 annual report, published in August 2020, that demand for cash continues to grow following heightened uncertainty caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
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In terms of value, Rs 500 and Rs 2,000 notes together accounted for 83.4% of the total notes in circulation at the end of March 2020, with their share rising sharply.
The current surge is said to be the sharpest since the Narendra Modi administration’s move to demonetise high-value notes in November 2016. Cash circulation in the economy
This dealt a severe economic blow as the financial crisis destroyed many businesses in the informal sector, which employs the majority of the country’s workforce.
For fiscal year 2017, the supply of the currency decreased by around 20% and increased by 37% the following year after the Government of India issued new Rs 500 and Rs 2000 notes.
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One of the objectives of this exercise is to achieve a less cash economy, including towards digital and other cashless modes of transactions. Although digital payments have grown steadily over the past four years, the current pandemic has dealt another blow and has not affected the use of cash. Cash in circulation has grown by over 54% since demonetisation
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Thousands of people took to the streets of cities across India to protest an economic policy you’ve probably never heard of: democratization.
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Three weeks ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stunned his country by announcing a ban on the 500 and 1,000-tonne notes in a bid to fight corruption and terrorism.
He estimated that by forcing people to exchange the country’s biggest notes for the new notes, the government could crack down on “black money” – unaccounted for holding cash that is not taxed but should be by law. He claimed it would attack domestic terrorist financing operations by seizing counterfeit money and devaluing legitimate cash held in the shadows.
A ban on widely used currency notes would have a huge impact on any economy, but politics is fickle in India. Modi’s sudden ban meant that 86 percent of all cash in circulation in India was no longer considered legal tender, meaning merchants could refuse to accept these notes as payment. And India’s economy runs entirely on cash: an estimated 90 to 98 percent of all transactions in India, measured by volume.
Unsurprisingly, Modi’s demonetisation move has created chaos across the country. People want the new notes, but the current supply is nowhere near the demand This has caused headaches for people as they wait in long queues outside ATMs and banks that regularly run out of cash. For those who depend on daily cash earnings to survive, this means they cannot afford food.
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The temporary shortage of currency notes has other far-reaching effects Farmers who want to plant their next crop cannot buy the required amount of seeds Property sales, which usually require huge cash investments, are slowing It is also reshaping cultural life: weddings that can cost millions of rupees are taking serious shape.
“Many marriages are postponed, and those who manage do so by borrowing from relatives and friends,” says Niranjan Sahu, senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank.
Modi’s agenda to crack down on black money makes sense in theory, but it doesn’t work smoothly in practice. This hurts individual Indians, and the country itself may pay a high price: Many economists expect growth in India’s booming economy to slow significantly in the final quarter of 2016.
As of November 8, the old 500- and 1000-ton banknotes are no longer legal tender. This means that if you try to buy lunch from them, the restaurant owner may refuse to accept them.
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People in India will have to go to the bank and exchange these notes for other 500 notes and 2000 notes with other notes by the end of the year.
If someone wants to transfer more than 250,000 rupees – about $3,650 – they have to explain why they have so much cash and show that they have paid taxes on it. If they don’t, they expect to pay a penalty of 200 percent of the loan
Modi’s main reason for imposing the ban was to force people with illegal cash holdings to deposit the money in bank accounts and pay taxes on it.
The Indian government collects a fraction of the taxes of advanced democracies. The government recently released data showing that only 1 percent of Indians paid taxes in 2013. As Kush Basu, a former chief economic adviser to the Indian government, noted in the New York Times, the most reliable estimates of India’s “shadow economy,” or the undisclosed part of it, put it at about a fifth of the country’s GDP.
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The demonetization plan is also a means of curbing crime For someone who has large cash holdings only from criminal enterprises, it would be difficult to explain how he pays taxes and cannot deposit his money. The government hopes to use the ban as an opportunity to divert counterfeit money from terrorist activities.
Furthermore, the ban acts as a natural call to move towards a cashless society in India, making good use of Modi’s proposal to digitize services in the economy.
The currency ban was a major headache for millions of Indians. With the old 500 and 1000 notes being the bread and butter of most financial transactions in India, everyone is rushing to exchange them. But because the supply of new notes is much smaller than the supply of old notes, there are strict rules on the amount of new notes people can withdraw at any one time. And with these regulations, banks are said to be running out of cash
“Every day – and today is the 20th day – you can see that there are long queues at ATMs and banks,” says Sahu.
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Cash shortages have been particularly hard on poor Indians, many of whom don’t have bank accounts. Some of them have to choose between waiting a day to exchange money or working for daily wages. And Basu estimates that many poor people may end up losing their savings simply because of their distrust in financial institutions and confusion about where their money comes from.
“This policy is poorly implemented and has high costs for those who can’t afford it,” said Rohna Pandey, an economist at Harvard’s Kennedy School. “Even if [the government] is able to reduce corruption to some extent, you have to balance it with spending or other means.
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